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Trump Trade War’s Ripple Effects Deepen: U.S. Consumer Tariffs Hit 1934 High at 18.3%, With $2,400 Annual Household Costs in 2025

The negative impacts of the Trump administration’s trade war continue to unfold. According to data from Yale University, the average effective tariff rate borne by U.S. consumers has reached 18.3%, a new high since 1934. American households are projected to face an additional annual expenditure of $2,400 in 2025. The apparel industry has been hit the hardest: shoe and clothing prices may rise by 40% and 38% respectively in the short term, and remain 19% and 17% higher than current levels in the long run.

Economic indicators are showing concurrent pressure: U.S. core inflation rose to 3.1% in July, far exceeding the 2% target; the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, approaching stagnation. Industries have directly pointed out that tariffs are driving up costs and acting as a catalyst for inflation.

Against this backdrop, China and the United States announced on August 12 a mutual 90-day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs, retaining only the 10% tariffs. This truce measure eases the pressure of tariff escalation, provides phased support for alleviating inflation and stabilizing trade expectations, and injects buffer space into the pressured economy.